In an effort to stimulate investment and facilitate access to credit, Bank Al-Maghrib decided during its meeting on March 18 to lower its key interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing it down to 2.25%. This marks the third rate cut in less than a year, reaffirming the accommodative stance of the central bank’s monetary policy in response to ongoing economic challenges. The effectiveness of this measure will largely depend on the ability of economic players to fully leverage it.
This decision comes in a context of slowing inflation and the urgent need to revive economic activity. After two years of inflationary pressures, price trends have shifted significantly in 2024, with average inflation falling to 0.9%. However, the central bank anticipates a moderate rise in inflation over the next two years, reaching around 2%, driven by the stabilization of commodity prices and a gradual recovery in demand.
Bank Al-Maghrib’s primary objective is to facilitate access to credit and enhance the financing dynamics of the economy, particularly for businesses and households. Available data already show a tangible impact from previous interest rate cuts. By the fourth quarter of 2024, lending rates on bank loans had declined by 35 basis points, indicating a gradual easing of financing conditions. In line with this approach, the central bank is implementing a special refinancing program for very small enterprises (VSEs), which will benefit from preferential refinancing rates—25 basis points lower than the key rate.
This measure aims to address financing constraints that continue to weigh heavily on these businesses, which frequently face credit restrictions. Despite their crucial role in the national economy, VSEs struggle to secure bank financing, limiting their contribution to growth and employment.
By facilitating access to credit for small businesses, Bank Al-Maghrib hopes to strengthen their integration into the economic fabric and accelerate productive investment. This initiative aligns with broader efforts to support the private sector, which remains a key driver of economic recovery.
That being said, economic growth—estimated at 3.2% in 2024—is expected to gradually accelerate to 3.9% in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026. Two main factors are fueling this momentum. First, sustained investment in infrastructure, which boosts activity in non-agricultural sectors and supports job creation. Then an anticipated improvement in agricultural output, provided climatic conditions remain favorable.
In any case, the reduction in the key interest rate is expected to reinforce this upward trajectory by lowering financing costs and encouraging private investment. However, uncertainties persist regarding the extent of its impact on growth, particularly due to commodity price volatility and climatic risks that continue to affect the agricultural sector.
Khadija MASMOUDI
