Imports of bread-making soft wheat are certainly buoyant at the start of the year, but the overall situation is a cause for some concern for the «National Interprofessional Office for Cereals and Pulses «(ONICL). According to figures from the National Federation of Cereal and Pulses Traders (FNCL), published at the end of last week, imports totaled just over 6.88 million quintals in January 2024.
This volume of imports is above the monthly average expected by the ONICL (6.25 million quintals), via its circular of November 21 instituting an import refund on operational common wheat until April 30 for a maximum quantity of 25 million quintals. But this remains insufficient in view of the quantities imported in the last half of 2023.
In fact, since last June, the import-to-stock tool, i.e. the logic which requires imports to ensure at least three months of stock, has not been fully respected. The disruption was exacerbated in the sixth month of last year, when no soft wheat was imported. Since then, it has been necessary to draw on the safety stock to meet millers’ needs, which average 4.5 million quintals of crushed wheat per month.
The upturn in imports in January is therefore welcome. It raises the level of the tool stock, but not enough to reassure ONICL. Indeed, the safety stock has fallen to less than 15 million quintals, i.e. just over three months instead of the recommended six, if one refers to the crushing needs of flour mills. In other words, there is really no need to worry about the month of Ramadan, which begins in 35 days’ time. The market will be adequately supplied with flour, even if it is known that the crushing rate tends to rise a month beforehand.
ONICL therefore wants to restore the fundamentals in terms of safety stock. For this reason, it has just published a circular instituting support for the constitution of a soft wheat stock by importers. Through this support mechanism, ONICL grants a storage premium of 2.5 DH per quintal in addition to the flat-rate import premium set each month. Imports eligible for support under this mechanism must be carried out (as evidenced by the bill of lading) during the period from February 01 to April 30, 2024.
Aziz Diouf
