Morocco continues to demonstrate its resilience in a troubled global context. In its Country & Sector Risk Barometer (June 2024), the Coface credit insurance group has maintained a «B» rating for Morocco (reflecting a «fairly high» risk in terms of country risk assessment). The business climate is rated A4. This is equivalent to an « acceptable «level of risk. Overall,
«Morocco’s rating remains unchanged». In comparison, and despite this rating, Morocco is better ranked than other countries in the Mena region. These include Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt (high risk), and Libya (extreme risk).
Strategic position and proximity to the European market, institutional stability, sustained relations with Europe, the United States and international donors are all strong points, as cited by the credit insurer. Added to this are the large-scale inward investments from Europe and outward investments to West Africa, as well as the company’s strategy of moving upmarket and diversifying its industrial base. On the list of weak points, Coface cites inequalities (rural poverty, youth unemployment, lack of housing, corruption, and other issues) in addition to the impact of droughts on harvests.
In view of this situation, Coface economists forecast a growth rate of around 2.9% in 2024, compared with 3% in 2023. Inflation is expected to be 3.5% this year, compared with 6% last year. A slight lull is expected on the public debt front, which should stabilize at around 71% of GDP in 2024. Against a backdrop of stabilizing global growth, Morocco is cited as one of the African countries where growth is expected to accelerate, according to the «Country and Sector Risk Barometer: Turbulent times ahead? Africa is expected to outperform and exceed 4% growth by 2025.
Coface’s overall message is that « the earthquake has not compromised the recovery «. Reconstruction efforts will support growth. In 2024, the manufacturing sector will continue to develop and support growth, via higher value-added exports in the automotive, aeronautical and textile sectors.
The government has announced a five-year reconstruction plan, budgeted at 11.7 billion US dollars, or 8.5% of GDP. It will be financed by an increase in budget spending and a contribution of two billion dirhams ($194 million) from the Hassan II Fund for Economic and Social Development. On the other hand, international aid will reduce budgetary pressure, in the form of solidarity funds, loans and multilateral grants.
Fatim-Zahra TOHRY
