There is no shadow of a doubt... the General Orientation Note (NOG 2023) will ultimately not achieve the goals as set by the public authorities (Government, line ministry, and ANRT, the telecom regulator).
The main share of these goals resides, it should be recalled, in the rollout of fiber optics, in particular the number of FTTH (Fiber-To-The-Home) sockets at a rate of 20% in 2023. almost 2 million sockets to be implemented next year, but, as of today, the current market for FTTH sockets barely represents some 450,000 sockets, i.e. one quarter of the goal as set by the General Orientation Note for the end of 2023. As a reminder, FTTH is an end-to-end optical fiber subscriber connection technology, which means that the optical fiber ends at the subscriber’s home. That being said, by 2025, Morocco will have to speed up the pace even more to connect 5 million FTTH sockets, that are supposed to virtually replace ADSL, which represents 50% of the fiber-to-the-subscriber market. In addition, there are still some 9,000 radio sites (pylons and stations) that are not yet fiber-optic. “ Failure to achieve the NOG 2023 goals will not only have to upset all the timetables but also slow down the performance of a sector that has been struggling for growth for at least 3 or 4 years or even make the non-mutualization and the conditions of sharing”, says an IT & Telecoms specialist. In addition, technically, the 5G configuration requires an architecture with a dedicated infrastructure operator. “Without the open access operator, there is no pooling and there will therefore be no 5G within the time allowed”, maintains a consultant specializing in telecoms. Another major constraint is the exorbitant cost of investment, especially since the current context, marked by inflation and the shortage of components involves additional costs in terms of infrastructure, equipment, installations, copper, inputs, and solutions... By way of consequence, “it will be impossible for each operator to roll out its own network... With the assumption of a further strengthening of the maintenance of the monopoly of the incumbent operator”, estimates an expert.
Clearly, fiber is the real project to be undertaken for the next few years in Morocco, says an IT & Digital expert. The challenge is therefore to quickly and equally equip with fiber optics all regions and territories, including landlocked and unprofitable areas. This is the whole challenge! Today, it is in Morocco’s interest to open up the telecom infrastructure component. “This is the major obstacle to the attractiveness of digital investors, while the country’s ambition is to become an African hub. Nonetheless, if there are still delays in terms of infrastructure rollout, this legitimate ambition of the country will quickly be thwarted. Worse, we risk missing the opportunity to become the landing point for the GAFAMs”, warns the same source.
Amin RBOUB
