The Moroccan economy continued to expand in the fourth quarter of 2024, albeit at a slower pace. GDP grew by 3.7%, down from 4.2% in Q4 2023. This deceleration reflects a context characterized by resilient domestic demand and a gradual easing of inflation, but also by growing vulnerabilities in both the agricultural and external sectors. End-of-year trends reveal an economy propelled by internal drivers, yet still grappling with persistent structural imbalances.
Economic activity remained primarily driven by domestic demand, which rose by 7.6%, slightly down from 8.1% a year earlier. Household consumption slowed (+4.1% vs. +5.1%), signaling greater caution amid ongoing uncertainty. In contrast, public spending accelerated significantly (+4.8% after +3%), contributing 0.9 percentage points to overall growth. Gross investment, while slightly down (+15.3% vs. +16.6%), maintained a strong contribution to GDP growth (5.4 points), highlighting the resilience of national capital formation efforts. Despite these internal growth engines, structural headwinds persist. The agriculture sector, particularly vulnerable to climate variability, saw a significant drop in value added (-4.9%), following stagnation the previous year. Adjusted for seasonal effects, the primary sector as a whole contracted by 4.7%, despite a modest uptick in fishing (+0.8%).
The secondary sector also felt the slowdown, with growth slipping to 4.9% from 6.9% a year earlier. Notable declines occurred in extractive industries (+6.5% vs. +16.1%) and manufacturing (+3.7% vs. +7.4%). Conversely, construction and public works showed a strong rebound (+7%), along with utilities (energy, water, sanitation), which rose by 5.7%.
The services sector, a key pillar of non-agricultural growth, continued its upward trend (+4.2% vs. +3.3%), supported by hospitality (+12.8%), public administration services (+3.9%), trade, and education/social services. However, several high value-added segments displayed clear signs of weakening: financial services growth slowed to +4.3% (from +5.5%), transport to +4.6% (from +5.3%), and information technology to just +2%.
Inflation Eases, But Financing Pressures Mount
One of the few positive signals this quarter was inflation. The general price level rose by 2.5%, a marked decline from 4.2% a year earlier.
This slowdown contributed to a deceleration in nominal GDP growth—from +8.4% to +6.2%—providing some relief to purchasing power.
However, gross national disposable income also slowed to 5.8%. National savings, while slightly up at 28.8% of GDP, remain below the investment rate, now at 32%. As a result, the economy’s financing gap widened significantly, reaching 3.2% of GDP, up from 1.4% a year earlier. This widening gap raises concerns about the medium-term sustainability of the current investment-led growth path.
By Khadija MASMOUDI
