Moderate growth is expected in the fourth quarter: 2.5% after 2.8% in the third quarter. Domestic demand remains the central pillar of this growth. Household consumption, supported by improved real incomes, social benefits and wage increases, will continue to grow at a steady pace.
«Their savings rate should even turn upwards by the end of 2024, given the resumption of growth in their real incomes and the improvement in their bank deposits», said the High Commissioner’s Office for Planning (HCP) in its economic outlook newsletter (Note de Conjoncture).
The slowdown in the fourth quarter was mainly due to difficulties in certain secondary industries and persistent difficulties in the agricultural sector, as well as increased caution on the part of manufacturers with regard to their investments. In the secondary branches, the third quarter was marked by strong growth in the extractive industries, with an increase in phosphate production due to a withdrawal of Chinese supply. However, this momentum seems to be running out of steam. Uncertainties surrounding the renewal of Chinese fertilizer export restrictions in the fourth quarter, and the completion of the catch-up phase in the extractive industries, are likely to weigh on the sector’s performance.
In the manufacturing sector, growth should fall to 2.7% in the fourth quarter. This slowdown is partly attributable to difficulties in certain sectors, notably the agrifood industry, faced with insufficient agricultural supply and high production costs in the meat, cereal, and dairy processing industries. «Activity is expected to be driven mainly by the dynamic construction and services sectors. In annual variation, non-agricultural value added would be 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024», notes the HCP. For its part, the agricultural sector, which suffered a 4.1% contraction in the third quarter, will continue to exert negative pressure on growth. Forecasts for the fourth quarter point to a further 4.4% contraction in value added. This decline is mainly due to continued weakness in crop production and a slight drop in livestock production. Production costs, although moderate for certain inputs such as fuel and fertilizers, continue to weigh heavily on farms, with rising prices for feed and gas in particular.
Khadija MASMOUDI
